2009 the year of the Western Balkans

Today the Commission adopted its annual strategy paper for the EU’s enlargement policy. It highlights the role the EU’s enlargement policy plays in the Union’s strategic interest in stability, security and conflict prevention. The Commission also reviews the progress achieved in the Western Balkans and Turkey over the last year and spells out the challenges ahead. The Western Balkan countries' advance towards EU membership can be accelerated, provided they meet the necessary conditions. It should be possible to reach the final stage of accession negotiations with Croatia by the end of 2009, provided that Croatia fulfils all the necessary conditions. The pace of negotiations with Turkey will continue to match the pace of reform in the country.

Enlargement serves the EU's strategic interest in stability, security, and conflict prevention. It has helped to increase prosperity and growth opportunities, to improve links with vital transport and energy routes, and to increase the EU's weight in the world. In the light of recent challenges to stability to the East of the EU, the consistent implementation of the enlargement policy becomes more important than ever. The present enlargement agenda covers the Western Balkans and Turkey.

Presenting the reports Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn said: “The conditional and indicative roadmap we present today for Croatia should be seen as an encouragement for the country to press on with reforms. Success depends on Croatia's ability to meet the conditions for EU accession. The indicative timetable may need to be adapted in light of the progress achieved by Croatia. The ball is now firmly in Croatia's court. The Commission will closely monitor the fulfilment of the conditions.”

“I also welcome the progress made in the Western Balkan countries. Their advance towards EU membership can be accelerated, provided they meet the necessary conditions. Potential candidate countries which demonstrate their readiness, could achieve candidate status. We will prepare a Feasibility Study on how to advance Kosovo’s[1] European future."

"Turkey has major strategic importance for the EU and I welcome the constructive role it played during the Caucasus crisis. I also note that domestic politics in 2008 was marked by strong political tensions. Now, I expect Turkey to re-energise its reform efforts. The pace of negotiations will continue to match the pace of reforms in Turkey."

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has made good progress on judicial reform and implementation of SAA obligations and continues to consolidate multi-ethnic democracy by implementing the Ohrid Agreement. However, the country needs to ensure free and fair elections and to improve the dialogue between major political parties and actors. There has also been some progress on fighting corruption, civil service reform, improving the business environment and stimulating employment. Nonetheless, further efforts are necessary. The Commission will continue to monitor progress on these areas closely.

Albania, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina are moving ahead with the implementation of their respective Interim Agreements and have made progress in important reform areas. Consolidating the rule of law and administrative enforcement capacities remains a major challenge in these countries. In particular, Albania needs to ensure the proper preparation and conduct of its 2009 parliamentary elections. Montenegro needs to continue to pursue judicial reform with determination. Bosnia and Herzegovina now urgently needs to achieve the necessary political consensus and to proceed with reforms, in particular with a view to assuming greater ownership of its governance.

Serbia needs to follow by positive developments through full cooperation with ICTY and making tangible progress in priority reform areas related to the rule of law and economic reform. If Serbia meets these conditions, it could obtain candidate status in 2009.

Kosovo shares the European perspective of the Western Balkans. Overall stability was maintained. However, Kosovo's European integration remains at an early stage in most areas concerned. The Commission will present a feasibility study in the autumn of 2009, evaluating means to further Kosovo's political and socio-economic development, and examining how best Kosovo can progress, as part of the region, towards integration with the EU.

The Commission continues to take measures to make the European perspective tangible for citizens and companies in the Western Balkans. Provided that the established conditions are met, the Commission may propose lifting the visa obligation in the course of 2009, on a country-by-country basis.

[1] Under UNSCR 11244/99

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Key findings of the progress reports on Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Kosovo:

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Reference: MEMO/08/672 Date: 05/11/2008





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MEMO/08/672

Brussels, 5 November 2008

Key findings of the progress reports on Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Kosovo[1]:

Albania

Albania signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU on 12 June 2006. An Interim Agreement covering trade-related matters has entered into force and is being implemented smoothly. SAA ratification by the Member States is nearing completion.

Political criteria

Albania has continued to make progress on consolidating democracy and the rule of law. Key judicial and electoral reforms have made headway, based on cross-party consensus. Efforts to strengthen the rule of law have intensified. Albania has continued to play a constructive role in maintaining regional stability and fostering good relations with other Western Balkan and neighbouring EU countries.

However, the culture of dialogue between political parties and the independence of state institutions require further consolidation to allow the political system to function effectively. Despite improved public perception, corruption continues to be a particularly serious problem, as does organised crime. Specific attention is needed to continue judicial reform.

Economic criteria

The Albanian economy made further progress towards becoming a functioning market economy.

Albania fast economic growth was accompanied by a widening trade gap, which is weakening country’s external financing position. Albania was successful in containing inflation.

The fiscal policy was loosened as the country started to invest more in infrastructure. This was accompanied by progress in privatisation and in improvements in business environment. Restructuring and privatisation in the energy sector were not accomplished and insecure energy supply continues to significantly hamper the economic development. Further considerable reforms need to be pursued in order to enable the economy to cope with competitive pressures and market forces with the union over the long term.

European standards

Albania has made progress in aligning its legislation, policies and capacity with European standards. It now needs to enhance its efforts in the implementation of these laws and policies. In areas such as customs, competition, free movement of goods and audiovisual policy, progress made in previous years has been sustained.

However, in other areas, such as energy, transport, public procurement, veterinary/ phytosanitary controls and intellectual property rights, progress remained limited. Improved results as regards the fight against organised crime, drug trafficking and money laundering are also necessary.

Montenegro

Montenegro signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU on 15 October 2007. The Interim Agreement on Trade and Trade-related matters, which entered into force on 1 January 2008, is being smoothly implemented, while SAA ratification is ongoing.

Political criteria

Montenegro has made progress in addressing the political criteria, in improving its legal framework and in strengthening its institutional infrastructure. Implementation of the new constitution adopted in October 2007 proceeded and the government has continued to adapt to the requirements created by the country's independence, including strengthening public administration and playing an active and constructive role in international and regional cooperation.

Montenegro needs to enhance its efforts in the implementation of laws and policies. While strong on EU integration matters, its political consensus needs to be broadened on other issues of state-building. Specific attention is needed to complete the judicial reform. Despite some progress, corruption and organised crime remain a particular challenge. Administrative capacity to implement laws needs to be further strengthened.

Economic criteria

The economy of Montenegro has continued to expand vigorously and the country made further progress towards establishing a functioning market economy.

Macroeconomic stability weakened due to rising inflation and external vulnerabilities arising from the trade deficit. However, high growth rates improved the fiscal position, enabled additional capital investments and enabled a further reduction of the external public debt.

The pace of structural reforms accelerated. The privatisation process was stepped up, but shortcomings in the rule of law and their resolution remain the key challenge for economic development.

The completion and swift implementation of ongoing reforms is required to enable Montenegro to cope in the medium term with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union.

European standards

Montenegro has made further progress in alignment with European standards. Good progress was achieved in the areas of free movement of services, customs and taxation and agriculture. Some progress can also be reported in the areas of free movement of goods, competition, public procurement, intellectual property rights, industry and SMEs, food safety, as well as justice, freedom and security.

However, progress in transport, energy, environment, and information society remained uneven. Progress was not satisfactory with regard to statistical system development.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Following progress in four key areas set out by the EU in 2005[2], the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) was signed in June 2008. However, the lack of consensus on the main features of state building, frequent challenges to the Dayton/Paris peace agreement and inflammatory rhetoric have adversely affected the functioning of institutions, have continued to slow down reforms and have put at risk the achievements made so far.

Political criteria

Bosnia and Herzegovina has made some progress in addressing political criteria during the first half of 2008. Beyond the developments that led to the signature of the SAA (see footnote), the country continued implementing its public administration reform strategy and adopted a national plan for development of the justice sector. The State Court continued prosecuting war crimes, and trials have generally been held within a reasonable time frame and in compliance with internationally recognised principles. Municipal elections in October 2008 were conducted in accordance with international standards.

However, lack of consensus on the main features of state building, frequent challenges to the Dayton/Paris peace agreement, and inflammatory rhetoric have adversely affected the functioning of institutions and slowed down reform, in particular since the middle of this year. The authorities have not yet demonstrated sufficient capacity to take the necessary political ownership and responsibility. The role played by ethnic identity in politics hampers the functioning of the democratic institutions and the country's overall governance. No progress has been made as regards constitutional reform. Corruption remains widespread and is a serious problem.

Economic criteria

The economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina has continued to expand rapidly and the country made some, albeit uneven, progress towards becoming a functioning market economy.

Macroeconomic stability has weakened as a result of worsening trade balance, higher inflation and expansionary fiscal policy. The persistence of very high unemployment remains a major source of concern. Fiscal coordination was improved, however. The National Fiscal Council was inaugurated in early September.

The SME sector benefited from increased access to financing. However, the shift in the structure of production towards higher value added activities remained sluggish and the commitment to structural reforms remained uneven across the country.

Further considerable reforms must be pursued to enable the country to cope over the long term with competitive pressures and market forces within the Union.

European Standards

As far as European standards are concerned, progress has been made in the fields of customs, taxation, agriculture, transport, visa administration, border management, asylum and migration.

However, the country needs to intensify its efforts in many areas, as free movement of goods, persons and services, employment and social policies, state aids, energy, environment and statistics. Improved results as regards the fight against organised crime, drug trafficking and money laundering are also necessary.

Serbia

Serbia signed the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) and an Interim Agreement covering trade-related matters on 29 April 2008.The Council however decided that the implementation of the Interim Agreement and the ratification of the SAA are subject to Serbia fully cooperating with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY).

Political criteria

Overall, there was little legislative output over the full year as government and parliament work were widely affected by divisions between political parties on key policy issues. Issues relating to Kosovo[3] and EU integration dominated political discussions. Since the Presidential and legislative elections there has been increased stability in government and greater consensus on European integration. Serbia made significant progress on cooperation with ICTY, including the arrests of Radovan Karadzic and Stojan Zupljanin. Parliament ratified the SAA in September 2008 and began work on a package of laws. Serbia has good capacity in its public administration. European integration structures were strengthened and the National Programme for EU Integration was adopted. Regulatory bodies performed well under difficult conditions. However, greater determination needs to be shown by the Serbian authorities to empower regulatory bodies.

Further efforts need to be taken to ensure the independence, accountability and efficiency of the judicial system. Corruption remains widespread and constitutes a serious problem. Civil and political rights in Serbia are generally protected. However, they were affected by the climate in the period immediately following the declaration of independence of Kosovo.

Relations between the EU and Serbia have been affected by the declaration of independence of Kosovo. In February a demonstration ended in violence with the attacks of several foreign diplomatic missions in Belgrade. The Serbian government has vowed to use only peaceful, legal and diplomatic means and has exercised restraint in its response to the declaration. Serbia recalled serving ambassadors from countries that recognised Kosovo, including EU Member States. Serbian ambassadors who had been withdrawn from EU Member States have since returned to their posts. Serbia has so far opposed reconfiguration of the international civilian presence in Kosovo and EULEX deployment. Serbia is encouraged to take a constructive approach towards Kosovo's participation in regional and international fora and to the EU's efforts to contribute to peace and stability in the Western Balkans.

Economic criteria

The Serbian economy continued to grow strongly and the country made some progress towards establishing a functioning market economy.

Good growth rates were accompanied by widening external imbalances and the vulnerability increased also in the light of the global financial crisis. Fiscal policy remained expansionary, contributing to the resurfacing of inflationary pressures in 2008. Despite recent high economic growth rates, unemployment remains a major challenge.

There was some progress in privatisation, but structural reforms in general slowed down. The country continued to attract the FDI, however, some foreign investors have been affected by the unstable political climate. A competitive and dynamic private sector has not yet been fully established. Further efforts are needed to enable Serbia to cope in the medium term with competitive pressures and market forces within the Union.

European standards

Serbia is well placed to implement the SAA and the Interim Agreement, thanks to its good administrative capacity. There has been progress in the field of free movement of goods and continued improvements in customs and taxation administrations. However, there was little legislative output on European standards and weak enforcement capacity in competition. Little progress has been made in the area of information society and media. A comprehensive and effective system of public internal financial control is still not in place. Money laundering and organised crime continue to be a serious problem in Serbia.

Kosovo

Kosovo declared independence in February and adopted a constitution, which came into force on 15 June. The EU established an ESDP rule of law mission "EULEX" and appointed a Special Representative. The UNSG has started reconfiguring the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). UNSCR 1244/1999 continues to be the international legal framework for the UN's mandate in Kosovo. The European Council of December 2007 and February 2008 started the EU's readiness to assist Kosovo's economic and political development through a clear European perspective, in line with the European perspective of the region.

Political criteria

Kosovo's politics have been largely determined by issues related to Kosovo's declaration of independence. Following the declaration the security situation remained relatively calm, with the exception of two serious incidents in Northern Kosovo. Overall stability has been maintained. Kosovo continued to cooperate with the international community. The constitution adopted by Kosovo is in line with European standards. A considerable amount of key legislation was adopted.

However, the government needs to ensure administrative capacity, sufficient means and determination to enable effective and efficient implementation and enforcement. Strengthening the rule of law, anti-corruption policy, the fight against organised crime and enhancing dialogue and reconciliation between the communities are major political challenges.

Economic criteria

The economy of Kosovo has grown at a somewhat higher rate than in previous years, but Kosovo has made very limited and uneven progress towards establishing a functioning market economy.

Macroeconomic performance was marked by weak budget implementation growing inflation, very high unemployment and external imbalances. On the positive side, economic activity is increasingly driven by private-sector dynamism.

Unreliable energy supply, a mismatch of skills and poor physical infrastructure are major constraints to development. Unemployment remains very high. Continued reform and sizable investment are necessary to enable Kosovo to cope over the long term with competitive pressure and market forces within the EU.

European standards

Kosovo has made some progress in approximating its legislation and policies with European standards notably in areas such as customs, agriculture and free movement of goods. However, little progress has been made on the effective implementation and enforcement of legislation. More efforts are needed in approximation and implementation of European standards, in particular in fighting organised crime, money laundering, drugs, taxation, energy and employment.

EU Financial Assistance under the Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA)[4] for the potential candidate countries

[1] Under UN Security Resolution 1244/99

[2] 1) Implementation of police reform in compliance with the October 2005 agreement on police restructuring; 2) full co-operation with the ICTY; 3) adoption and implementation of all necessary public broadcasting legislation; and 4) development of the legislative framework and administrative capacity to allow for proper implementation of the SAA.

[3] Under UNSCR 1244/1999[]



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Brussels, 5 November 2008

Key findings of the progress reports on the candidate countries: Croatia, Turkey and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia:

Croatia

EU accession negotiations began with Croatia on 3 October 2005 and are progressing well.

21[1] out of 35 negotiation chapters have been opened so far. Out of these chapters, four have been provisionally closed[2].

Based on the overall good progress made by Croatia the Commission earlier this year held out the prospect of presenting an indicative timetable for the technical conclusion of negotiations in 2009, provided conditions are met. Such a conditional road map now is presented in this year's Strategy paper.

Political criteria

Croatia continues to meet the Copenhagen political criteria. New strategies and action plans as well as legislation for reforming the judiciary, the public administration and in fighting corruption have been adopted. The anti-corruption body USKOK continues to intensify its activities. Croatia has taken some steps to address problems of minorities, including refugee return. Croatia has continued to participate actively in regional cooperation.

However, considerable challenges remain in key areas, such as reform of the still inefficient judicial system and public administration and in fighting organised crime and corruption, which remains widespread. Sustained efforts are needed across the board, leading to concrete results. Further attention needs to be paid to minority rights, especially refugee return. The prosecution of war crimes requires continued attention. There are some problems of access by ICTY to certain documents in Croatia.

Regional cooperation needs to continue, as do efforts to solve outstanding bilateral problems with neighbours, especially on border delimitation.

Economic criteria

Croatia is a functioning market economy. It should be able to cope with competitive pressures and market forces within the Union in the medium term, provided that it further implements its comprehensive reform programme with determination in order to reduce structural weaknesses. The economy of Croatia continued to show a solid performance. Macroeconomic stability has been preserved. Employment grew and unemployment continued to decline. Business registration procedures have improved further.

However, inflation has risen considerably, largely due to higher energy and food prices. The current account deficit has been growing.

The implementation of structural reforms has been slow. Significant subsidies to enterprise have not been used effectively for restructuring. Further improvements in the business environment are needed.

EU legal order

Croatia has improved its ability to take on the obligations of membership. Preparations for meeting EU requirements are moving forward at a steady pace. Significant progress has been made in economic and monetary policy and information society and media. Good progress has been made in many chapters, such as public procurement, intellectual property law, customs union, food safety and financial services. However, significant efforts lie ahead, in particular in areas such as judiciary and fundamental rights, environment, competition policy and agriculture and rural development;

Turkey

EU accession negotiations with Turkey began on 3 October 2005 and have moved forward over the reporting period.

8 out of 33 negotiation chapters have been opened so far. One chapter has been provisionally closed[3]. In addition, opening benchmarks have been set as conditions for opening negotiations on 13 chapters[4].

Political criteria

Turkey continues to sufficiently fulfil the Copenhagen political criteria. However, progress on reforms was limited in 2008. The government achieved legislative progress in the areas of freedom of expression and in enhancing the property rights of non-Muslim religious communities. Furthermore, it pledged to increase spending on the South-East Anatolia Project, which is addressing the economic and social difficulties of the South East.

Now that Turkey has averted a political crisis linked to the Constitutional Court case against the governing party, it needs to reinvigorate the process of political reform. The lack of dialogue and a spirit of compromise between the main political parties had a negative impact on the functioning of the political institutions and on political reforms. Turkey continued to suffer from terrorist attacks by the PKK, which is on the EU list of terrorist organisations.

A consistent and comprehensive programme of political reforms is now needed, in particular as regards the reform of the constitution, the judiciary reform. Furthermore, significant efforts are needed on most areas related to the political criteria.

Economic criteria

As regards the Copenhagen criteria, Turkey is a functioning market economy. It should be able to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union in the medium term, provided it implements its comprehensive reform programme in order to address structural weaknesses.

The Turkish economy continued to perform well, although growth fell below potential. This happened due to a slowdown in domestic demand which followed the implementation of a strong stabilisation programme.

Macroeconomic stability remains weak through considerable external financing needs, which makes Turkey vulnerable to changes in investor sentiment. The budget performance has been satisfactory, but structural rigidities in the labour market hinder job creation, particularly female and youth employment.

The government developed new initiatives to boost investment in infrastructure with aim to reduce high regional disparities. Significant progress was made in the area of price liberalisation in the energy sector.

EU legal order

Turkey has further improved its ability to take on the obligations of membership. Turkey has made progress in aligning with the the EU's legal order in a number of areas, in particular in chapters Trans-European networks, energy and science and research. Moderate progress was made in the area of financial control. Alignment is advanced in some areas, such as free movement of goods, intellectual property rights, enterprise and industrial policy, anti-trust policy, consumer and health protection, science and research, energy. Alignment needs to be pursued, in particular in areas such as agriculture, fisheries, veterinary and phytosanitary policies, state aid, justice and home affairs, social policies and employment. Turkey's overall administrative capacities need to be improved.

Owing to Turkey's non compliance with its obligations related to the additional protocol to the Ankara Agreement, in December 2006 the EU decided to freeze eight chapters of the negotiations, but to continue with the other chapters[5].

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia obtained the status of candidate country in December 2005.

Political criteria

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia made some progress in the course of the last year but does not yet meet the political criteria. Steps have been taken to address the key priorities of the Accession Partnership; further efforts are required.

Implementation of the Ohrid Framework Agreement continues to consolidate multi-ethnic democracy. A law which provides a framework for the use of the languages of non-majority communities has been adopted. The country has made progress in the implementation of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) and has reached a high level of compliance. Progress can be reported on judicial reform and on police reform.

However, considerable challenges remain in key areas. The OSCE-ODIHR election observation mission reported that key international standards were not met in the conduct of the elections. Political dialogue needs to be strengthened and sustained in order to allow the effective functioning of political institutions, in particular the parliament. Corruption remains widespread and remains a particularly serious problem, although a number of steps have been taken in this regard. Measures need to be taken to ensure that recruitments into the civil service are free from undue political interference.

Economic criteria

The economy of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia strengthened during the last year and the country has moved closer towards becoming a functioning market economy. It should be able to cope with competitive pressures and market forces within the Union in the medium term, provided that it vigorously implements its comprehensive reform programme in order to reduce significant structural weaknesses.

Macroeconomic stability was improved by more effective tax collection, by lowering the tax burden on labour, and by increasing spending on education and infrastructure. However, threats are posed by the deteriorating trade balance, which accompanied the recent high growth rates. Persistently high unemployment, particularly among young, remains a source of concern.

The country continued with structural reforms. Price liberalisation and privatisation are largely accomplished. FDI inflows increased markedly during the last year. Challenges remain in building up an attractive business environment, which is still hampered by administrative weakness and low degrees of legal certainty.

EU legal order

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has made good progress in legislative alignment with the EU's legal order in a significant number of areas such as public procurement, competition, transport, enterprise and industrial policy, information society and media. There has been good progress in the introduction of biometric passports. However the country still faces shortcomings in implementing and effectively enforcing legislation, mainly in areas as free movement of goods, taxation, food safety, veterinary and phytosanitary policy.

EU Financial Assistance under the Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA) for the candidate countries

[1] 21 opened chapters: science and research, education and culture, economic and monetary policy, industrial policy, customs, intellectual property rights, services, company law, statistics, financial services, financial control, information society and media, consumer and health protection, external relations, financial and budgetary provisions, TENs, transport, energy, free movement of workers, social policy and employment, free movement of goods.

[2] Opened and provisionally closed: science and research, education and culture, industrial policy, and external relations.

[3] Enterprise and industry, statistics, financial control, trans-European networks, consumer and health protection, intellectual property law, company law, provisionally closed: science and research

[4] Free movement of capital, public procurement; competition policy; agriculture, taxation, employment and social policy, customs union, free movement of services, food safety, free movement of goods, environment, financial services.

[5] Free movement of goods, right of establishment and freedom to provide service, financial services, agriculture and rural development, fisheries, transport policy, customs union and

external relations.

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